Howard Marks
Oaktree 聯合创始人，周期、风險和信用市場 memo 是核心資產
Oaktree Capital Management 的關键價值在 Howard Marks memos，而不是單纯股票持倉。最值得看的是风險偏好、信用周期、流動性、二阶思维和市場温度如何影响他對資產價格、违约风險和投資者行為的判断。
| 股票 | 股數 | 市值 | 权重 |
|---|---|---|---|
TRMD
|
23,839,575 | $675.1M | 10.7% |
EXE
|
5,237,477 | $575.0M | 9.1% |
AU
|
3,223,092 | $313.8M | 5.0% |
GTX
|
14,594,816 | $265.2M | 4.2% |
TDS
|
4,292,243 | $180.7M | 2.9% |
VNOM
|
3,791,432 | $178.2M | 2.8% |
CORZ
|
9,400,708 | $139.9M | 2.2% |
STKL
|
20,726,126 | $134.2M | 2.1% |
PBR
|
6,089,413 | $126.4M | 2.0% |
B
|
2,624,859 | $107.1M | 1.7% |
TLN
|
331,117 | $105.7M | 1.7% |
LBTYA
|
8,551,191 | $103.4M | 1.6% |
ITUB
|
12,188,995 | $102.1M | 1.6% |
NOK
|
11,200,308 | $90.1M | 1.4% |
TAC
|
6,415,253 | $84.1M | 1.3% |
CBL
|
2,153,717 | $82.8M | 1.3% |
FCX
|
1,220,122 | $71.7M | 1.1% |
XP
|
3,172,009 | $60.4M | 1.0% |
AERO
|
3,968,686 | $55.6M | 0.9% |
BLCO
|
3,382,739 | $53.8M | 0.9% |
| 股票 | 動作 | 13F 時間 | 當前股數 | 上期股數 | 股數變化 | 13F市值變化 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
INDV
|
大幅增持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 212,875,428 | 7,108,644 | 2894.6% | -$248.1M |
|
TRMD
|
小幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 23,839,575 | 26,425,059 | -9.8% | +$147.8M |
|
PBR
|
新增 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 6,089,413 | 0 | - | +$126.4M |
FTAI
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 517,328 | -100.0% | -$101.8M |
NU
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 4,479,175 | -100.0% | -$75.0M |
|
VNOM
|
大幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 3,791,432 | 6,285,062 | -39.7% | -$64.6M |
GRAB
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 11,207,699 | -100.0% | -$55.9M |
CRDO
|
新增 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 539,000 | 0 | - | +$50.6M |
YPF
|
新增 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 886,465 | 0 | - | +$41.0M |
VIST
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 782,250 | -100.0% | -$38.1M |
YMM
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 3,519,764 | -100.0% | -$37.8M |
SBLK
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 1,962,892 | -100.0% | -$37.7M |
CX
|
大幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 2,763,083 | 5,749,324 | -51.9% | -$34.5M |
|
GTX
|
小幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 14,594,816 | 17,094,816 | -14.6% | -$32.8M |
|
NOK
|
大幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 11,200,308 | 18,752,229 | -40.3% | -$31.3M |
CRC
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 694,502 | -100.0% | -$31.1M |
BZ
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 1,523,231 | -100.0% | -$31.0M |
|
TDS
|
大幅增持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 4,292,243 | 3,688,386 | 16.4% | +$29.5M |
|
AERO
|
小幅增持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 3,968,686 | 3,776,986 | 5.1% | -$27.3M |
EMBJ
|
新增 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 447,606 | 0 | - | +$26.6M |
VALE
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 2,023,706 | -100.0% | -$26.4M |
|
B
|
小幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 2,624,859 | 2,975,118 | -11.8% | -$22.5M |
INFY
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 1,094,752 | -100.0% | -$19.5M |
|
CORZ
|
小幅增持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 9,400,708 | 8,350,708 | 12.6% | +$18.3M |
ONIT
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 390,835 | -100.0% | -$17.9M |
|
EXE
|
小幅增持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 5,237,477 | 5,062,363 | 3.5% | +$16.3M |
SMPL
|
新增 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 1,128,889 | 0 | - | +$16.2M |
|
AU
|
大幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 3,223,092 | 3,847,991 | -16.2% | -$14.4M |
ECVT
|
大幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 2,393,791 | 4,254,503 | -43.7% | -$10.6M |
|
CBL
|
小幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 2,153,717 | 2,517,576 | -14.5% | -$10.4M |
BHC
|
清倉 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 0 | 1,270,000 | -100.0% | -$8.8M |
TEO
|
大幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 1,622,244 | 2,347,508 | -30.9% | -$8.3M |
NRG
|
新增 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 49,028 | 0 | - | +$7.2M |
|
XP
|
小幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 3,172,009 | 3,320,159 | -4.5% | +$6.0M |
|
ITUB
|
小幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 12,188,995 | 13,822,747 | -11.8% | +$3.2M |
OPTU
|
小幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 7,330,490 | 7,500,000 | -2.3% | -$2.8M |
TX
|
小幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 582,924 | 658,565 | -11.5% | -$1.7M |
|
FCX
|
小幅減持 | 2026-03-31 披露 2026-05-15 | 1,220,122 | 1,390,053 | -12.2% | +$1.1M |
|
TRMD
|
大幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 26,425,059 | 40,581,120 | -34.9% | -$307.3M |
|
INDV
|
大幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 7,108,644 | 257,785,398 | -97.2% | +$244.4M |
|
GTX
|
大幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 17,094,816 | 31,894,816 | -46.4% | -$136.4M |
|
AERO
|
新增 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 3,776,986 | 0 | - | +$82.9M |
SATS
|
清倉 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 0 | 600,000 | -100.0% | -$45.8M |
|
AU
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 3,847,991 | 4,185,261 | -8.1% | +$33.8M |
NBR
|
清倉 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 0 | 737,112 | -100.0% | -$30.1M |
|
CX
|
大幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 5,749,324 | 10,448,824 | -45.0% | -$27.9M |
|
VIST
|
大幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 782,250 | 1,841,319 | -57.5% | -$25.3M |
SE
|
清倉 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 0 | 141,368 | -100.0% | -$25.3M |
KRSP
|
新增 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 2,799,999 | 0 | - | +$25.0M |
|
B
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 2,975,118 | 3,302,086 | -9.9% | +$21.4M |
RWAY
|
大幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 7,029,667 | 8,279,667 | -15.1% | -$21.3M |
|
INFY
|
新增 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 1,094,752 | 0 | - | +$19.5M |
|
ONIT
|
新增 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 390,835 | 0 | - | +$17.9M |
|
GRAB
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 11,207,699 | 12,094,495 | -7.3% | -$16.9M |
|
ECVT
|
大幅增持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 4,254,503 | 2,859,022 | 48.8% | +$16.4M |
|
XP
|
大幅增持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 3,320,159 | 2,032,877 | 63.3% | +$16.2M |
LILA
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 5,748,780 | 6,669,823 | -13.8% | -$13.4M |
|
FCX
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 1,390,053 | 1,504,865 | -7.6% | +$11.6M |
|
YMM
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 3,519,764 | 3,797,697 | -7.3% | -$11.5M |
|
BLCO
|
小幅增持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 3,382,739 | 3,245,439 | 4.2% | +$8.9M |
|
TEO
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 2,347,508 | 2,629,483 | -10.7% | +$8.1M |
|
BZ
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 1,523,231 | 1,643,572 | -7.3% | -$7.4M |
|
CORZ
|
大幅增持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 8,350,708 | 6,400,708 | 30.5% | +$6.8M |
|
TX
|
大幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 658,565 | 897,509 | -26.6% | -$6.0M |
|
ITUB
|
小幅增持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 13,822,747 | 12,665,801 | 9.1% | +$6.0M |
|
VALE
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 2,023,706 | 2,033,706 | -0.5% | +$4.3M |
|
FTAI
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 517,328 | 585,175 | -11.6% | +$4.2M |
|
NU
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 4,479,175 | 4,518,884 | -0.9% | +$2.6M |
ALVO
|
小幅增持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 5,200,323 | 4,666,667 | 11.4% | -$2.0M |
|
CBL
|
大幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 2,517,576 | 3,005,126 | -16.2% | +$1.3M |
LILAB
|
小幅減持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 839,020 | 846,474 | -0.9% | -$816,912 |
|
TLN
|
小幅增持 | 2025-12-31 披露 2026-02-17 | 331,117 | 291,117 | 13.7% | +$280,547 |
|
VNOM
|
新增 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 6,285,062 | 0 | - | +$240.2M |
|
INDV
|
大幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 257,785,398 | 11,009,125 | 2241.6% | -$151.6M |
|
TDS
|
新增 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 3,688,386 | 0 | - | +$144.7M |
|
CORZ
|
新增 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 6,400,708 | 0 | - | +$114.8M |
|
FTAI
|
新增 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 585,175 | 0 | - | +$97.6M |
|
TLN
|
大幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 291,117 | 129,829 | 124.2% | +$86.1M |
|
NU
|
新增 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 4,518,884 | 0 | - | +$72.3M |
|
AU
|
大幅減持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 4,185,261 | 4,947,737 | -15.4% | +$68.9M |
|
EXE
|
小幅減持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 5,062,363 | 5,062,364 | 0.0% | -$54.2M |
|
GTX
|
小幅減持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 31,894,816 | 36,894,816 | -13.6% | +$46.6M |
|
SATS
|
新增 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 600,000 | 0 | - | +$45.8M |
|
B
|
小幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 3,302,086 | 3,157,686 | 4.6% | +$42.5M |
|
LILA
|
大幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 6,669,823 | 2,328,516 | 186.4% | +$41.8M |
|
XP
|
新增 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 2,032,877 | 0 | - | +$38.2M |
AD
|
新增 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 724,444 | 0 | - | +$36.2M |
|
VIST
|
小幅減持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 1,841,319 | 2,061,561 | -10.7% | -$35.2M |
EC
|
清倉 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 0 | 3,549,822 | -100.0% | -$31.4M |
|
NBR
|
新增 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 737,112 | 0 | - | +$30.1M |
|
FCX
|
大幅減持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 1,504,865 | 1,996,075 | -24.6% | -$27.5M |
|
YMM
|
大幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 3,797,697 | 1,842,337 | 106.1% | +$27.5M |
BEKE
|
清倉 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 0 | 1,513,039 | -100.0% | -$26.8M |
|
CRC
|
大幅減持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 694,502 | 1,376,753 | -49.6% | -$25.9M |
|
ECVT
|
新增 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 2,859,022 | 0 | - | +$25.0M |
|
TAC
|
小幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 6,415,253 | 6,085,253 | 5.4% | +$22.1M |
|
RWAY
|
大幅減持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 8,279,667 | 9,779,667 | -15.3% | -$20.8M |
|
SBLK
|
大幅減持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 1,962,892 | 3,230,527 | -39.2% | -$19.2M |
|
ITUB
|
大幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 12,665,801 | 11,004,494 | 15.1% | +$18.2M |
|
BLCO
|
大幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 3,245,439 | 2,521,245 | 28.7% | +$16.1M |
|
LBTYA
|
小幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 8,551,191 | 8,212,191 | 4.1% | +$15.8M |
UNIT
|
清倉 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 0 | 3,397,592 | -100.0% | -$14.7M |
|
GRAB
|
小幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 12,094,495 | 11,569,295 | 4.5% | +$14.6M |
|
SE
|
大幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 141,368 | 83,513 | 69.3% | +$11.9M |
|
BZ
|
小幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 1,643,572 | 1,571,272 | 4.6% | +$10.4M |
BRY
|
清倉 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 0 | 3,697,000 | -100.0% | -$10.2M |
|
YPF
|
清倉 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 0 | 324,330 | -100.0% | -$10.2M |
|
CX
|
大幅減持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 10,448,824 | 14,839,032 | -29.6% | -$8.9M |
|
LILAB
|
新增 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 846,474 | 0 | - | +$7.0M |
|
TEO
|
小幅減持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 2,629,483 | 2,644,263 | -0.6% | -$4.2M |
|
TX
|
小幅減持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 897,509 | 919,709 | -2.4% | +$3.5M |
HDB
|
大幅增持 | 2025-09-30 披露 2025-11-13 | 151,206 | 84,843 | 78.2% | -$1.3M |
Howard Marks 梳理私人信贷和直接贷款的演化，重點不是簡單判断行業好坏，而是提醒投資人分清資產結構、承銷纪律、杠杆、流動性和周期检验。
Marks 再次讨论 AI，但核心不是预测哪家公司赢，而是用泡沫、基础设施过度投資和價格纪律来评估 AI 資產的投資风險。
Marks 直接回應 AI 泡沫問題。他没有簡單给二元答案，而是拆分企業投資行為、投資者心理、AI 基础设施和市場定價四個层面。
Marks 用信用市場里的早期問題案例讨论风險暴露。他關心的是局部违约和压力事件是否代表更廣泛的信用周期轉折。
Marks 從機構投資流程出發，讨论投資委員會、顾問、风險指標和組合治理中容易被忽略的問題。
Marks 為自己 35 年 memo 写作做精選索引，直接给出他认為最能代表 Oaktree 投資思想和市場周期觀察的材料。
Marks 回到價值投資的核心：價值、價格和预期收益之間的關系。他用公共證券估值解释為什么價格纪律是所有投資判断的中心。
Marks 延續對經濟規律和政策干预的讨论，用保險、租金、關税和财政赤字说明政府试图压制價格信号時的副作用。
Marks 回答市場最常問的信用利差問題：關键不是利差是否窄，而是當前收益是否足以覆盖未来信用损失。
Marks 在 bubble.com 25 周年時回看泡沫識别框架，讨论极端心理、热門龙头持續性和“這次不同”的危險。
Marks 认為 2022 年利率和通胀變化可能構成其职業生涯第三次重大环境切换，結束过去长期低利率對資產價格的顺风。
這篇 memo 是 Marks 後来同名书的思想源头之一，核心是没有單一最重要的事，優秀投資需要多項原則同時成立。
Marks 的經典风險控制 memo：投資人無法可靠预测事件，但可以通过組合結構、风險预算和心理准備提高生存概率。