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Investment memo · 2025-08-14

The Calculus of Value

Oaktree Capital Management · Howard Marks

value Price Valuation Expected return

AI summary and analysis

Marks returns to the core of value investing: the relationship between value, price, and expected returns. He uses the valuation of public securities to explain why price discipline is central to all investment judgments.

Key points

  • He breaks down value judgments into growth, durability, return on capital and the price investors are willing to pay, reminding investors that valuation is not a static multiple.
  • Marks emphasized that the quality of assets cannot be discussed in isolation from price; good companies may also become bad investments because their prices are too high.
  • This memo is connected to the AI ​​bubble discussion: when the long-term narrative is strong, there is a greater need to explicitly calculate the relationship between price and future returns.
  • He compared credit and equity in the same framework, explaining that return certainty, risk and price jointly determine the quality of opportunities.
  • For consumers, this article is the basic material for understanding "why top investors don't chase hot spots."

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